Q: Who’s going to win Worlds?
A: We now have the names of the eight finalists and their decklists. Unfortunately, I'm not one of them, but I'll be glad to be your host on Sunday for the French webcast coverage!
Paulo Carvalho (Gruul)
Ryo Ogura (Blue-white Tron)
Katsuhiro Mori (Blue-white Tron)
Nicholas Lovett (Boros)
Tiago Chan (Blue-white-red Angel)
Gabriel Nassif (Blue-white-red Tron/ life)
Paulo Vitor da Rosa (Boros)
Mihara Makihito (Dragonstorm)
Match 5: (Winner of match 1 vs. winner of match 2)
Match 6: (Winner of match 3 vs. winner of match 4)
Paulo Carvalho beats Ryo Ogura:
It's always the battle between aggro versus Wrath of God. But in that matchup, even though Paulo is packing very few burn spells which are usually key there, the Solifuge will probably sneak the last damage to finish off a weakened Ogura after a Wrath of God. The only way I can see Ryo winning is by drawing the Tron early enough to be able to play Wrath of God, with counter spells for the Solifuge.
On paper, and before sideboard, just like Paulo Carvalho is favorite against Ryo Ogura, Nicholas has a certain advantage. Mori feels confident about the matchup after sideboard. And confident he can be, with 3 Faith's Fetters, Circle of Protection: Red, four Wrath of God and Spell Snare. Mori also has the edge in experience. That may count for more.
Gabriel will win quite easily. Tiago's deck doesn't put enough pressure in the early game, and won't be able to win in the late game with Demonfires against Gabriel's Martyrs of Sand.
In theory, Dragonstorm kills on turn 4, Boros on turn 5. Honorable Passage may steal a game, but in the end the Dragons will take the match.
Paulo Carvalho vs. Katsuhiro Mori.
Despite Mori's experience, and for the same reasons as in Match 1, Boros will beat Blue-white Tron.
Gabriel Nassif vs. Mihara Makihito
Gabriel's plan for this match is to get out of reach of what would be a lethal Dragon strike from Makihito thanks to Martyrs, then wrath away the mighty red beasts, and proceed to win somehow.
Gabriel Nassif vs. Paulo Carvalho.
Gabriel's deck is designed to beat aggro. To the best of my knowledge, Gruul falls into the aggressive archetypes.
Gabriel sweeps the final 3-0, is crowned a second time in his career and becomes Magic World Champion 2006 in his very hometown!